T Ó P I C O : Possibilidade de seca na Primavera no Brasil.
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Criado em: 28/06/2006
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Possibilidade de seca na Primavera no Brasil.
Autor: Marco Antonio Jacob
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1 comentários
Último comentário neste tópico em: 29/07/2017 13:09:40
Marco Antonio Jacob comentou em: 26/07/2017 11:45
Possibilidade de seca na Primavera no Brasil.
Em um forum internacional de mercado de café , se discute a possibilidade de SECA nas Regiões Cafeeiras na Primavera do Brasil , vamos estar atentos e monitorar esta possibilidade , pois se houver uma estiagem forte na florada do café , podemos perder 10/15 milhões de sacas de café.
Brazilian friends, you have an exceptionally strong ASAS that is preventing cold fronts from entering the region. It is stationary over the Atlantic but this one is too strong and the ocean SST has overcooled. I am predicting dryness for your flowering period as this ASAS will probably be stubborn and persistent. The air is very dry and plants water reserves will probable deplete prematurely. What is your expectation on this ?
Thanks Orb, how much rain do you get usually during the dry months ? Because, quite frankly, I think you are about to go about 90 days completely dry henceforth.
Dont know how much. It will be sub par by a lot. This is my long term forecast and NOAA is also along the lines I think.
Unless I see a major change, I will bet heavily on a drought this year Orb. It is the same reason why I think that frost danger has past. This ASAS will linger around for months. It is one of those high pressures that are stationary, but this year it is well over 1040 mb strong. I expect it to weaken as the winter months come to an end but it will still remain strong enough to send dry cool air into coffee areas. I also expect that you will have fairly cool weather in the area for longer.
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